LATE-NIGHT UPDATE: In the short term we need to divert our attention from Tropical Storm Dean to the Gulf of Mexico, where Tropical Depression Five has formed tonight. The storm is moving toward the south Texas coast at about 10 mph, as this loop shows.
Although there are hints the system may be slowing a little, it is unlikely to linger long enough over the warm Gulf waters to significantly intensify. The hurricane center expects the depression to become Tropical Storm Erin tomorrow, with winds of 45 mph, before reaching the coast Thursday.
Houston will likely feel the effects beginning Wednesday night, from the system's rain bands.
Meanwhile T.S. Dean continues to cross the open Atlantic. Its winds have strengthened to 50 mph tonight, and I'm guessing it could be the season's first hurricane by tomorrow or Friday. I'll have a better analysis of the models, which continue to push the storm west and delay a northward turn, in the morning.
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